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Trust is often listed by customers as one of the most important aspects in their relationship with financial institutions, ahead of price and timeliness of service. However, less than a third of consumers trust banks and other financial institutions to provide a truly unbiased advice.
An alternative mechanism to guide investors’ expectations that has been shown to provide a relatively unbiased and statistically better-than-expert assessments is prediction markets. Prediction markets are a mechanism for aggregation of individual judgements from a broad swathe of participants about a probability of a future event. Academic studies have shown that groups of non-experts reliably outperform experts via such mechanisms given proper incentives and data aggregation techniques.
Well structured, prediction markets can avoid many of the biases inherent in existing forward markets (e.g. positioning, regulation) and, crucially, have been shown to be resistant to manipulation and are intrinsically egalitarian by nature.
Although well analyzed and publicized, prediction markets typically exist in a form of binary option exchanges and are thus considered a form of gambling which is either heavily regulated or outright prohibited in some geographies. The binary configuration is also not well suited to predict events that are non-binary and span multiple time periods.
votery.net is a new mechanism that avoids some of the common pitfalls of prediction markets and is better suited to forecast a wide range of outcomes through a range of dates. votery.net provides precise real time crowdsourced expectation of near term market performance. It is always on. Think futures market that never pauses, doesn't have liquidity and positioning distortions and is accessible to everyone for free.
The output is a permanent record so that anyone wishing to use our published averages can see accuracy of past predictions and how it has evolved. Our overriding objective is to become better at what we do over time.
Finally, we do not believe that you need an Ivy League degree nor even your own capital to make a career in investing. Give it a shot, no experience necessary.