Once the actual value for the auction target is known, we calculate each voter's result as a sum of scores of all votes they have submitted for this auction and rank players from highest to lowest according to this aggregate score.

Individual votes are scored on three parameters

• How precise the vote was Specifically, the value you voted for vs. the target. For this, we use a measure related to the Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) technique.


• How far in advance the vote was cast The further your vote is from the auction close, the more it is worth.

This is a multiplier applied to the precision score based on the time between the vote and the auction closing time. The bigger the difference, the higher the multiplier. Thus, votes taken as soon as the auction opens (30 days before closing) are worth 100%, this drops to 90% on day two and then decays towards approximately 40% the day before the auction closes. Early (and correct) birds get higher scores.

• How far away the vote was from the consensus A maverick bonus! The further the Main Average is at the time of your vote from it, the bigger the bonus. You still have to be correct for this to work.

Why are these rules set up this way? We are structuring incentives to achieve early and plentiful voting. Many data points, across 24 hours a day to keep charts dynamic and responsive to new information.

Users can spend their votes deliberately across a multitude of possible strategies. Those include spreading your votes along a likely path of the index, concentrating most of the votes on a particular auction or collecting the maverick bonus by correcting the line where it is too far off.

Weekends and holidays

Weekend and holiday actual values will be calculated using an average between the last known closing value and either the first known open (where available) or the first known close. In case of target being unavailable for more than 1 day, weights will be skewed by proximity, so for example Saturday Target = 2/3 Friday number + 1/3 Monday whereas Sunday Target = 1/3 Friday + 2/3 Monday and so on.